‘What President Tinubu should do with economy before 2027’

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu needs to re-energise government policies to consolidate gains in security, ease living costs, and scale up investments in critical sectors.

These are the highlights of a cross-survey of economists, finance and investment experts, investors and public policy.

President Tinubu yesterday marked the second anniversary of his administration.

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There were positive reviews of his policies.

Experts, however, said the Tinubu Administration needs to move more decisively and deal with insecurity as a major prong to achieving food security, reducing inflationary pressure and enhancing foreign and domestic investments in the next two years.

They called for a more aggressive and coordinated fiscal approach to tackling inflationary pressure, reducing high interest rates and lowering foreign exchange (forex) rates.

While acknowledging substantial progress in monetary management, experts said the next two years should see stronger congruence between the fiscal and monetary authorities.

Those who spoke yesterday include Chairman, Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG), Mr. Niyi Yusuf; Director General, Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Segun Ajayi-Kadir; and Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf.

Others are Managing Director, Arthur Steven Asset Management, Mr Olatunde Amolegbe; President, Association for the Advancement of Rights of Nigerian Shareholders (AARNS), Dr Faruk Umar; and Managing Director, Highcap Securities, Mr David Adonri.

The NESG said the Tinubu Administration had stabilised the economy with its major reforms in the past two years and must move quickly now to widen the benefits of such reforms into inclusive growth and development.

According to the NESG, the removal of fuel and forex subsidies, ongoing major infrastructure works and consumer credit schemes, amongst others, were tough but necessary foundational reforms, which should foster economic recovery.

“But more attention needs to be paid to rapidly increase the social safety and transfers to cover tens of millions of poor citizens, tame inflation, improve availability and access to electricity supply, security of lives and properties, streamline taxes and regulations to support micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and drive jobs creation for the teeming youth,” Yusuf said.

According to him, NNPCL’s commitment to increasing oil production to 2.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) to generate more revenue must be prioritised while export-oriented businesses must be supported by relevant agencies of government to further improve trade position, reserves and balance of payment.

The NESG Chairman said: “Savings from the removal of subsidies on forex, fuel and electricity should be channelled by federal, state and local governments into investments in education, health and food production.”

Dr. Muda Yusuf called on the President to remain focused on his reforms, shun political distractions and accelerate policy formulation and implementation in the overall interest of the economy.

According to him, as the country has started seeing some positive outcomes from the reforms of the past two years, there should be less political distraction, especially now that electioneering activities seem to be gradually gathering momentum.

“We need to build on the current macroeconomic stability that we have achieved so that we don’t see the sliding back or retrogression of the progress that has been made as far as the stability of the macroeconomic environment is concerned.

“A major issue that is of concern to the citizens, especially within the context of the present reform, is the cost of living challenge, particularly from the point of view of the segments of society.

“So in the next few years, we need to see some deliberate policies across all policy instruments.

“Our monetary policy, fiscal policy, trade policy, and tax policy instruments should be calibrated in a way that ensures that we tackle the problem of the cost of living, especially concerning the basic needs of the average Nigerian.

“I’m talking about basic things like staple food, like healthcare, pharmaceutical products, education, transportation costs, and the like; ensuring that those basic things are affordable and we moderate the level of inflation on those things. They are very, very critical.

“Even within the political space, we need to make the economic progress as inclusive as it can be. And the way to make it inclusive is to ensure that we address the cost-of-living crisis that we are dealing with at the moment.

“It’s also important to ensure that we strengthen the coordination between fiscal and monetary policy.

“We must pursue fiscal consolidation, minimise the level of deficits and our debt exposure, because the debt situation presently is also of concern,” Yusuf said.

He stressed the need for the government to ensure debt sustainability by reviewing its expenditures properly and optimising revenue.

According to him, the tax reform policies and measures would help to promote the ideals of fiscal consolidation in a way that will ensure that the country minimises deficits and enhances fiscal sustainability.

Ajayi-Kadir called on the government to fast-track the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline project, which is targeted for completion in 2025 and is poised to add 3.6 gigawatts (GW) to the national power supply.

“This boost could reduce the current reliance on diesel generators among manufacturers and improve capacity utilisation,” Ajayi-Kadir said.

He underscored the need for more effective engagement and inclusion of relevant stakeholders in policy processes, noting that the primary responsibility of the government is creating an enabling environment to unlock the potential of the economy.

He urged the government to urgently consider adopting a comprehensive industrial policy.

He said: “A nation without a clear industrial policy is like a ship without a rudder.

“We must adopt a comprehensive policy framework that guides our industrial development, fosters growth and propels us towards a brighter economic future.”

He commended the federal lawmakers for the passage of the four tax reform bills and the pronouncement of the Nigeria First policy, noting that the nation anxiously awaits the expedited consummation of these initiatives and their effective implementation.

Umar said President Tinubu should enhance the government’s capital raising through project-tied issuances that could help increase the pace of the nation’s infrastructural development.

He noted that the domestic capital market has demonstrated the depth to drive the nation’s economic development, urging the government to deepen its engagement with the market.

“There are still a lot of untapped opportunities in the capital market for the government and I think the next two years should see the capital market playing more critical roles in bridging the infrastructure gap and democratising the nation’s wealth creation across the strata of the populace,” Umar, who sits on the boards of several companies, said.

Amolegbe said easing the cost of living crisis caused by the policy reforms initiated by the government would be crucial going forward.

“This means getting a handle on inflation by tackling both the monetary and structural issues contributing towards increasing the inflation rate in the short run, such as elevated exchange rate, high interest rate, as well as pervasive insecurity that is hampering food production and supply.

“In the medium to long term, continuous investments in infrastructure to improve transportation, energy supply, education and health should be stepped up in order to lay a solid foundation for economic growth,” Amolegbe, a former President of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS), said.

Adonri pointed out that due to the state of the economy, monetary policy is still in emergency mode, considering the extraordinarily high monetary parameters.

According to him, for monetary policy to normalise, the inflation rate needs to decline to single digits.

He said: “The attack on inflation now needs to be addressed from structural perspectives through administrative actions and fiscal policy.

“For the yawning supply gap fueling inflation to be bridged, structural deficiencies in security must be addressed by restructuring the architecture properly.

“Gaps in the engineering infrastructure of the economy, which is the bedrock for production, must be addressed.

“Population growth must be controlled.

“Capital formation must be directed towards critically strategic industries required for the domestication of the economy.

“Balanced budgeting must be adopted.”

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